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Overview

Financial Forecasting is the process or processing, estimating, or predicting a business's future performance. With a financial prognosis you try to predict how the business will look financially in the future.

A common example of making financial prognoses is the predicting of a company's revenue. Sales figures ultimately determine where the (commercial) organisation is at. They are therefore important indicators for good decision-making that supports organisational objectives.

Financial Forecasting is a tool for entrepreneurs and CEOs to make better business decisions in a multitude of scenarios. It also helps with:
1. Convincing investors to finance a company
2. Setting objectives and budgets

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Types of Financial Forecasting

  • Quantitative forecasts:
    Quantitative forecasts use analyses of large quantities of historical data to identify trends and patterns. Quantitative forecasts are - generally speaking - less susceptible to skewing than speculative forecasts.
    However, if there isn't much historical data available, the quantitative method becomes less effective. That's why quantitative and speculative forecasts are often used in tandem.
    Examples are : Pro-forma financial statements, Time series analysis, Cause-effect method.
  • Qualitative forecasts:
    Speculation is something that's done based on intuition and experience. The human mind is able to see connections between events and understand the context in ways that computers cant.
    However, people are also prone to having certain biases that make it a challenge to process and analyse large quantities of data. Speculative forecasts are best used in small businesses with little or no historical data available.
    Examples are : Expert opinions and visions, Reference forecasts, Delphi method, Consumer research, Scenario forecasts.

Components of Financial Forecasting

Financial forecasting refers to creating certain financial statements. These statements are also called pro-forma statements. Three statements are important when making financial prognoses. These are:

  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Pro-forma balance sheet

Some of these statements have to be filled out in the right order.
The income statement, or profit-and-loss statement, tells you how much money comes in to the business, and how much goes out.
The cash flow statement shows how the money is turned into a profit. The balance sheet helps to predict required payments, assets, and equity.
When these statements are accurate and complete, a business owner can make a financial forecast about how the organisation will look over time.

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